Looking through the results of ID on CEVO, they actually have not beaten anyone of note. They lost 16-12 vs LDLC.Blue which at least shows they can shoot people. They also lost 16-10 to RCTIC, 16-12 to Vexed, which is that not bad if you think about it. The map today will be Overpass, which is a map they had a close 16-14 loss to RCTIC on. That is their only notable match on this map.
Looking at Choke, their only result on Overpass was a 16-6 victory against eSuba. They also had a loss in the ESL UK Premiership Season 2 vs CSGOCasino.net on the same map. I do remember from watching the iSeries streams that Choke were not THAT bad on the map, but how good or bad is pretty hard to predict right now.
The sensible thing to do with a match like this, is to SKIP, or go ICB on the underdog. These types of games are hard to get a read on who is better, and as such, going on the underdog in a 50-50 game, makes sense.
My odds for this match: Choke 50:50 ID
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