Note: New predictions will have multiple recommendations and adapt to the odds coming through from lounge. For the best results, wait as late as possible to place your bet
EnVyUs has fallen from their dominance since Cluj, losing very recently in two Bo3’s vs Na’Vi and Titan. I wouldn’t say they did great in either of these games, only getting a map 16-14 vs Na’Vi and getting handled on two vs Titan. They did bounce back and shut down EFrag handily after these however. It’s clear they aren’t in their top form. Also, this is online, so we don’t know what we’ll be seeing from them.
Dignitas are, well they’re Dig. They “recently” took a map off of fnatic and TSM in a BO3, lost 2-0 vs G2, and beat Na’Vi handily 2-1. Their new lineup is, well it’s not quite as explosive as when they had schneider but it’s really seemed like it’s going to pay off. I think they’ll turn into a solid T2 team who play consistently and can upset better teams. They’ll never get in that form they were in this past summer, but it was the right move if you ask me.
This is a BO3 in StarLadder with the winner going on to face the winner of TQM (ex-TSM) vs EFrag. So both teams will want this.
There are two scenarios that most likely play out here, either EnVyUs show up and completely wreck Dignitas, or nV will be in their recent lackluster form that they’ve been in and Dignitas will make the third map close and might even take it. One thing in Dig’s favor is nV’s weak map pool compared to most T1 teams. Per map goes as follows:
Cache: 65-35 nV
Inferno: 70-30 nV
Cbbl: 65-35 nV
Train: 55-45 nV
Mirage: 55-45 Dig
D2: 55-45 nV
Overpass: 60-40 Dig
The main thing here is that the veto process is ban ban ban ban pick pick, so this will be hurting Dig as nV can ban both mirage and overpass. Because of this, and that I have a strong feeling nV will roll past them like they have every other time the teams have played, a skip is in order. You may consider going medium on nV, but the chance of them not showing up scares me too much. Another scary thing about betting on nV is their recent connection issues.
My odds for this match: EnVyUs 70:30 Dignitas